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Covid-19 death toll equals and will likely exceed the 1918-1919 flu pandemic

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  • Covid-19 death toll equals and will likely exceed the 1918-1919 flu pandemic

    In an early thread concerning the Covid-19 pandemic I proposed the possibility that Covid-19 may hang around for years and possibly may become endemic to the human population like some other viruses. The problem appears that COVID-19 may not have as much a seasonal nature as other viruses. Fortunately the vvaccines are very effects. Unfortunately the COVID-19 pandemic still rages among the unvaccinated' particularly in the Southern states.

    During the 1918-19 flu pandemic masks and social distancing were found to reduce impact of the pandemic. Philadelphia refused to stop a parade despite warnings from medical officials, and in the flu raged there with high fatalities more than some other cities.

    Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/covid-19-death-toll-1918-flu-pandemic




    Covid-19 has now killed as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu pandemic


    More than 1,900 people are dying in the US daily on average – the highest level since early March


    Soldiers at Camp Funston in Kansas recover from the influenza pandemic in 1918. Photograph: Us Army/ReutersAssociated PressMon 20 Sep 2021 22.11 EDT Covid-19 has now killed as many Americans as the 1918-19 flu pandemic – more than 675,000.

    The US population a century ago was just one-third of what it is today, meaning the flu cut a much bigger, more lethal swath through the country. But the Covid-19 crisis is by any measure a colossal tragedy in its own right, especially given the incredible advances in scientific knowledge since then and the failure to take maximum advantage of the vaccines available this time.



    Read more
    “Big pockets of American society – and, worse, their leaders – have thrown this away,” said Dr Howard Markel a medical historian at the University of Michigan.

    Like the 1918-19 flu, the coronavirus may never entirely disappear from our midst. Instead, scientists hope it becomes a mild seasonal bug as human immunity strengthens through vaccination and repeated infection. That could take time. Everett/REX/Shutterstock
    “We hope it will be like getting a cold, but there’s no guarantee,” said Rustom Antia, a biologist at Emory University, who suggests an optimistic scenario in which this could happen over a few years.

    For now, the pandemic still has the United States and other parts of the world firmly in its jaws.

    While the Delta variant-fueled surge in infections may have peaked, US deaths are more than 1,900 a day on average – the highest level since early March – and the country’s overall toll topped 675,000 Monday, according to the count kept by Johns Hopkins University, though the real number is believed to be higher.

    Winter may bring a new surge, with the University of Washington’s influential model projecting an additional 100,000 or so Americans will die of Covid-19 by 1 January, which would bring the overall US toll to 776,000.

    © Copyright Original Source




    Last edited by shunyadragon; 09-21-2021, 07:44 AM.
    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

    go with the flow the river knows . . .

    Frank

    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

  • #2
    Are we now afraid to call it the Spanish Flu? More historical revisionism?

    Covid-19 overtakes 1918 Spanish flu as deadliest disease in American history

    Inside the Swift, Deadly History of the Spanish Flu Pandemic

    The 1918 'Spanish' flu: pearls from swine? | Nature Medicine



    The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

    Comment


    • #3
      Is this really a surprise given that world population was roughly 1.6 to 1.8 billion then as opposed to just under 8 billion today?

      I'm always still in trouble again

      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

      Comment


      • #4
        I belief calling it the Spanish Flu Pandemic is a misnomer, because the 1918-1919 flu pandemic actually originated among US troops in the Mid-West beginning in 1917.
        This source states that it began in the spring of 1918 in a Kansas military base, but I believe there was a first outbreak among US troops in 1917. I hae to research the source. It was called the Spanish Flu early because of the high infection and death rate among Spanish troops in WWI

        Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm



        History of 1918 Flu Pandemic

        Español
        The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

        It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

        While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly.

        © Copyright Original Source


        Last edited by shunyadragon; 09-21-2021, 08:08 AM.
        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

        go with the flow the river knows . . .

        Frank

        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
          Is this really a surprise given that world population was roughly 1.6 to 1.8 billion then as opposed to just under 8 billion today?
          Yea, the population is higher in the USA than in 1918=1919, but not 8 billion today, which is more like the world population, Actually in some regions of the world like Africa and India the cases and fatalities of the 1918-1919 pandemic still far exceed the COVID-19 pandemic. In Africa whole villages were wiped out, and actually the total count of fatalities were never accurated counter. Worldwide it may be as high as more than 50 million. The article addresses the USA only.

          Also the current COVID-19 is not going away as it happened suddenly in the 1918-1919 pandemic, which more a characteristic of flu season pandemics.
          Last edited by shunyadragon; 09-21-2021, 08:22 AM.
          Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
          Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
          But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

          go with the flow the river knows . . .

          Frank

          I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post

            Yea, the population is higher in the USA than in 1918=1919, but not 8 billion today, which is more like the world population, Actually in some regions of the world like Africa the cases and fatalities of the 1918-1919 pandemic still far exceed the COVID-19 pandemic. The article addresses the USA only.

            Also the current COVID-19 is not going away as it happened suddenly in the 1918-1919 pandemic, which more a characteristic of flu season pandemics.
            In the U.S. the population then was less than a third of what it is today

            I'm always still in trouble again

            "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
            "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
            "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

            Comment


            • #7
              There is an interesting story from my experience concerning the 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic when I first learned of it about in 1975. The odd thing was it was not addressed in most if not all history textbooks up until that time. I was working in Richie County, WV near Cairo West Virginia on the Soil Survey..I found a very large survey next to a mall church. The graves went back to the 1700's with some early graves unmarked. I was shocked to see many graves dated in 1919 included what appeared ro be whole families. One of the families was Moneypenny. Later I was working on the Moneypenny farm and met an elderly John Moneypenny. On the wall were two photos of two generations on Moneypenny's 1ith 13 children in each generation. I asked him about the large number of 1919 Moneypenny graves next to the small church. He pointed to the 1919 family picture on the wall that had two army troops in uniform, and satd, "See the young toe headed (blond) boy that's me. I was the only survivor of 'Spanish Flu Pandemic' in my family. It was ar this time I began an intense research of the 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic, and other pandemics in history.
              Last edited by shunyadragon; 09-21-2021, 08:53 AM.
              Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
              Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
              But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

              go with the flow the river knows . . .

              Frank

              I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                In the U.S. the population then was less than a third of what it is today
                I acknowledged this, but nonetheless the COVID-19 flu pandemic rages on, particularly among the unvaccinated.

                It is interesting to note that the USA is among the highest case, hospitalization and fatality rates in the world in the COVID-19 Pandemic.
                Last edited by shunyadragon; 09-21-2021, 08:49 AM.
                Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                go with the flow the river knows . . .

                Frank

                I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
                  There is an interesting story from my experience concerning the 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic when I first learned of it about in 1975. The odd thing was it was not addressed in most if not all history textbooks up until that time. I was working in Richie County, WV near Cairo West Virginia on the Soil Survey..I found a very large survey next to a mall church. The graves went back to the 1700's with some early graves unmarked. I was shocked to see many graves dated in 1919 included what appeared ro be whole families. One of the families was Moneypenny. Later I was working on the Moneypenny farm and met an elderly John Moneypenny. On the wall were two photos of two generations on Moneypenny's 1ith 13 children in each generation. I asked him about the large number of 1919 Moneypenny graves next to the small church. He pointed to the 1919 family picture on the wall that had two army troops in uniform, and satd, "See the young tow headed (blond) boy that's me. I was the only survivor of 'Spanish Flu Pandemic' in my family. It was ar this time I began an intense research of the 1918-1919 Flu Pandemic, and other pandemics in history.
                  I did a funeral for a Vietnam Vet about 10 years ago - typical "forgotten soldier"... he had been pretty much homeless and not many people even knew he existed. A guy from the VFW called me and asked if I would do a funeral service for him. It would only be me, the VFW guy, and the veteran.

                  Apparently, the cheapest burial plot was in a cemetery WAY out "in the boonies", so I left in plenty of time not to get lost. The VFW guy and I waited for quite a while because, apparently, the funeral director and the lone funeral home vehicle got lost on the way to the cemetery.

                  While waiting, I began just wandering around the cemetery, noticing headstone after headstone after headstone with the markings "1918-1919" or similar. Meaning these were infants who died within 1 or 2 years of their birth.

                  Yeah, it was quite a sad experience.
                  The first to state his case seems right until another comes and cross-examines him.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Source: https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2021-09-02/delta-surge-hits-southern-states-the-hardest




                    The Delta Variant Is Hammering the Southeastern U.S.

                    Coronavirus case rates are up in all states, but Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi are hit the hardest.

                    By Braeden Waddell
                    |
                    Sept. 2, 2021, at 3:23 p.m.


                    More

                    A patient is brought near a treatment tent outside the emergency department at Holmes Regional Medical Center, July 29, 2021, in Melbourne, Fla.(PAUL HENNESSY/SOPA IMAGES/LIGHTROCKET/GETTY IMAGES)

                    Southern states have been hit the hardest by the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus that led to a 4.6 million-case surge nationwide since late June, according to a new report from USAFacts.

                    Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi and Arkansas had the highest rate of new cases compared to their population since the variant began spreading throughout the country. All four states saw at least 3% of their total population test positive for COVID-19 since June and experienced surges in deaths and hospitalizations.

                    Louisiana has the highest number of new cases relative to its population of any state, and had a seven-day average case count of over 2,100 as of Aug. 31. Less than half of the state's population has received the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.


                    Seven of the 10 states with the highest seven-day average number of cases are in the South.

                    Florida currently has over 18% of all new COVID-19 cases in the country, though it makes up just 7% of the U.S. population. The state's seven-day average number of cases as of Aug. 31 was the highest in the country, at more than 17,000 new cases.

                    Mississippi's average daily cases are just above 2,800 and Arkansas' are just above 2,000, according to USAFacts data.

                    © Copyright Original Source

                    Last edited by shunyadragon; 09-21-2021, 10:35 AM.
                    Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                    Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                    But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                    go with the flow the river knows . . .

                    Frank

                    I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      The mortality rate for the Spanish flu was still WAY higher than the mortality rate for COVID though.

                      This was written back in April but the numbers are still relatively the same at the article's death number as at 500,000.


                      The 675,000 deaths attributed to the influenza epidemic made up 0.64 percent of the total population, a little more than six in every thousand people. By contrast, the more than 500,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 make up about 0.15 percent of the total population, or between one and two in every thousand people. If COVID-19 caused deaths at the same rate as the 1918 epidemic, the total would approach two million. Even the disturbing projections of more than to 600,000 deaths by July 1, 2021, would still remain below the rates recorded in the earlier epidemic.
                      https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10....29.51293/full/


                      Using 331M population and 675K deaths from COVID I calculate the current rate at .2 percent of the total US population.


                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Sparko View Post
                        The mortality rate for the Spanish flu was still WAY higher than the mortality rate for COVID though.

                        This was written back in April but the numbers are still relatively the same at the article's death number as at 500,000.


                        The 675,000 deaths attributed to the influenza epidemic made up 0.64 percent of the total population, a little more than six in every thousand people. By contrast, the more than 500,000 deaths attributed to COVID-19 make up about 0.15 percent of the total population, or between one and two in every thousand people. If COVID-19 caused deaths at the same rate as the 1918 epidemic, the total would approach two million. Even the disturbing projections of more than to 600,000 deaths by July 1, 2021, would still remain below the rates recorded in the earlier epidemic.
                        https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10....29.51293/full/


                        Using 331M population and 675K deaths from COVID I calculate the current rate at .2 percent of the total US population.
                        This has already been accepted and understood. The high hospitalization rate and fatalities between the 1918-19 Flu Pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic brings a number of question to the table. In the 1918-19 Flu Pandemic The medical standards of the time cold do little to care for the patients other than make them comfortable while many died and some survived on their own Though it was determined that masks and social distancing did make a difference from area to are, and city to city. The questions remain:

                        1) Why is the infection, hospitalization rate higher in the USA than many other countries, even some low tech countries?
                        2) Why is the vaccination rate low in many areas of the country especially the South? Ar present we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated concerning hospatlizations and fatalities?
                        3) The technology is ther, but a large percent of the population rejects. Why does the anti-science attitude still pervade in the The technology is ther, but a large percent of the population rejects, but not in most other countries, particularly Europe and the Orient?
                        USA

                        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
                        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
                        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

                        go with the flow the river knows . . .

                        Frank

                        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post

                          This has already been accepted and understood. The high hospitalization rate and fatalities between the 1918-19 Flu Pandemic and the COVID-19 pandemic brings a number of question to the table. In the 1918-19 Flu Pandemic The medical standards of the time cold do little to care for the patients other than make them comfortable while many died and some survived on their own Though it was determined that masks and social distancing did make a difference from area to are, and city to city. The questions remain:

                          1) Why is the infection, hospitalization rate higher in the USA than many other countries, even some low tech countries?
                          2) Why is the vaccination rate low in many areas of the country especially the South? Ar present we have a pandemic of the unvaccinated concerning hospatlizations and fatalities?
                          3) The technology is ther, but a large percent of the population rejects. Why does the anti-science attitude still pervade in the The technology is ther, but a large percent of the population rejects, but not in most other countries, particularly Europe and the Orient?
                          USA
                          Mostly because people don't trust the government. A large portion of the unvaccinated are blacks in the south. They remember being lied to about medical treatments in the past such as the Tuskegee Study. see: https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...istrust-doubts

                          Others don't want a shot because they already had the disease, and others are just naturally suspicious of anything being forced upon them by the government, or are naive and believe the antivaxxer nonsense being spread on websites and social media.

                          Part of the government distrust is the constantly changing advice being handed out. Wear masks. Masks do no good. Only unvaccinated need to wear masks. No, everyone needs to wear masks if they are vaccinated or not. We need booster shots. No we don't need booster shots. and on and on.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post

                            ... but nonetheless the COVID-19 flu pandemic rages on, particularly among the unvaccinated....
                            Kevin_lol.gif
                            That's what
                            - She

                            Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                            - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                            I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                            Stephen R. Donaldson

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                              Mostly because people don't trust the government. A large portion of the unvaccinated are blacks in the south. They remember being lied to about medical treatments in the past such as the Tuskegee Study. see: https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid...istrust-doubts

                              Others don't want a shot because they already had the disease, and others are just naturally suspicious of anything being forced upon them by the government, or are naive and believe the antivaxxer nonsense being spread on websites and social media.

                              Part of the government distrust is the constantly changing advice being handed out. Wear masks. Masks do no good. Only unvaccinated need to wear masks. No, everyone needs to wear masks if they are vaccinated or not. We need booster shots. No we don't need booster shots. and on and on.
                              And let's not forget the flow of illegals coming in across the Southern border, mostly from countries experiencing their own spikes, processed and stuck on busses and shipped all over.

                              They don't require them to be tested (unless showing obvious signs of illness) much less get vaxxed like old Joe is demanding that everyone else might be.

                              I'm always still in trouble again

                              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                              Comment

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