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New fossils push back the indisputable origin of life

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  • #31
    Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
    That's only the case if absolutely none of the intervening steps gets fixed. Which is exactly the opposite of what evolution proposes.
    But I'm assuming they occur and get fixed, each with a 90% probability.

    Blessings,
    Lee
    "What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)

    Comment


    • #32
      Originally posted by lee_merrill View Post
      But I'm assuming they occur and get fixed, each with a 90% probability.
      Your math indicates you're not assuming that. So if you don't have a conceptual problem - and you're claiming here you don't - then you have a problem translating those conceptions to math.

      Put differently, your math is done assuming absolutely none of those probabilities is independent. Fixation assures that they are independent.
      "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

      Comment


      • #33
        Originally posted by lee_merrill View Post
        But I'm assuming they occur and get fixed, each with a 90% probability.

        Blessings,
        Lee
        Again ENRON probabilities. See The Lurch's post
        Glendower: I can call spirits from the vasty deep.
        Hotspur: Why, so can I, or so can any man;
        But will they come when you do call for them? Shakespeare’s Henry IV, Part 1, Act III:

        go with the flow the river knows . . .

        Frank

        I do not know, therefore everything is in pencil.

        Comment


        • #34
          Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
          Put differently, your math is done assuming absolutely none of those probabilities is independent. Fixation assures that they are independent.
          Multiplying probabilities is how you compute independent probabilities, though.

          Blessings,
          Lee
          "What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by lee_merrill View Post
            Multiplying probabilities is how you compute independent probabilities, though.
            My apologies, i phrased that wrong.

            If, once a 90% probability event happens, if it goes to fixation, then every single ensuing event will necessarily occur on a backdrop where the first event happened. In other words, fixation takes any probability, and effectively converts it to a certainty for every subsequent event. Evolution also works in parallel, so many of those probabilities can be explored simultaneously, rather than in series (which your calculations assume).

            Finally, the basic approach is biologically nonsensical, in that there is never a finite probability for an event, since there's not a finite set of generations. You need to talk in terms of probability per generation.
            "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
              My apologies, i phrased that wrong.

              If, once a 90% probability event happens, if it goes to fixation, then every single ensuing event will necessarily occur on a backdrop where the first event happened. In other words, fixation takes any probability, and effectively converts it to a certainty for every subsequent event. Evolution also works in parallel, so many of those probabilities can be explored simultaneously, rather than in series (which your calculations assume).

              Finally, the basic approach is biologically nonsensical, in that there is never a finite probability for an event, since there's not a finite set of generations. You need to talk in terms of probability per generation.
              Assuming mutations must take sequentially.

              How many times has it been now.?

              I'm always still in trouble again

              "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
              "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
              "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                If, once a 90% probability event happens, if it goes to fixation, then every single ensuing event will necessarily occur on a backdrop where the first event happened. In other words, fixation takes any probability, and effectively converts it to a certainty for every subsequent event.
                But these events (occurrence and fixation I'm treating as one event) are independent, so the probability of the combined events is their multiplied probability. Statistical independence is all that's required.

                Evolution also works in parallel, so many of those probabilities can be explored simultaneously, rather than in series (which your calculations assume).
                No, the events can occur simultaneously.

                Finally, the basic approach is biologically nonsensical, in that there is never a finite probability for an event, since there's not a finite set of generations. You need to talk in terms of probability per generation.
                That's a good point, but you can still speak of the probability of an event over the lifetime of a species.

                Originally posted by rogue06
                Assuming mutations must take sequentially.
                No, I'm not assuming anything about the order of events, they can occur in any order.

                Lay out ten coins on a table, flip them in any order, the probability of them all coming up heads is the same.

                Blessings,
                Lee
                "What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by lee_merrill View Post
                  But these events (occurrence and fixation I'm treating as one event) are independent, so the probability of the combined events is their multiplied probability. Statistical independence is all that's required.


                  No, the events can occur simultaneously.


                  That's a good point, but you can still speak of the probability of an event over the lifetime of a species.


                  No, I'm not assuming anything about the order of events, they can occur in any order.

                  Lay out ten coins on a table, flip them in any order, the probability of them all coming up heads is the same.

                  Blessings,
                  Lee
                  But what if after flipping nine of them and having them come up heads, would the odds be of that tenth coin also being heads?

                  I'm always still in trouble again

                  "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                  "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                  "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                    But what if after flipping nine of them and having them come up heads, would the odds be of that tenth coin also being heads?
                    50%, for one event. For the combination of events, though, it's much less.

                    Blessings,
                    Lee
                    "What I pray of you is, to keep your eye upon Him, for that is everything. Do you say, 'How am I to keep my eye on Him?' I reply, keep your eye off everything else, and you will soon see Him. All depends on the eye of faith being kept on Him. How simple it is!" (J.B. Stoney)

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by lee_merrill View Post
                      50%, for one event. For the combination of events, though, it's much less.

                      Blessings,
                      Lee
                      To be honest, I'm surprised you got that right.

                      I'm always still in trouble again

                      "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
                      "Overall I would rate the withdrawal from Afghanistan as by far the best thing Biden's done" --Starlight
                      "Of course, human life begins at fertilization that’s not the argument." --Tassman

                      Comment

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