The astonishing success of COVID vaccines

[Teallaura]

What's the data on the length of effectiveness once vaccinated? Last I heard, there really wasn't enough data to predict that with any certainty.

It should be just prelim but I haven't seen it - maybe Lurch has.

[Teallaura]

Your best bet is herd immunity, but given the number of people who refuse to be vaccinated, and the new variants that are on the way, I'd guess you're going to be at risk for quite some time.

Both inoculation (basically exposure that doesn't result in symptomatic disease for this purpose) and infection advance herd immunity and faster than vaccination if we're talking implementation so this guilt tripping is unwarranted. Variants aren't novel diseases themselves and they usually become successively less prevalent as they are less likely to achieve infection up against a partially primed immune system. There is a risk but it's a silly argument as vaccine failure and loss of immunity inevitably lead down the same hole.

[TheLurch]

What's the data on the length of effectiveness once vaccinated? Last I heard, there really wasn't enough data to predict that with any certainty.

No indications of it dropping with time so far, but we've only been following things since the autumn.

[Stoic]

Both inoculation (basically exposure that doesn't result in symptomatic disease for this purpose) and infection advance herd immunity and faster than vaccination if we're talking implementation so this guilt tripping is unwarranted.

Yes, we could achieve herd immunity just as quickly by getting everyone infected as we can by getting everyone vaccinated. The drawback would be millions of additional deaths, some from covid-19 and some from other health conditions that require medical care, which wouldn't be available. And millions more long-haulers, of course.

Variants aren't novel diseases themselves and they usually become successively less prevalent as they are less likely to achieve infection up against a partially primed immune system. There is a risk but it's a silly argument as vaccine failure and loss of immunity inevitably lead down the same hole.

Immunity from one variant, whether through infection or vaccination, won't necessarily protect one against a different variant. New variants tend to be more infectious, also. The best way to protect ourselves from new variants showing up is to decrease the prevalence of the disease quickly, and the best way to do that is through vaccination.

[Roy]

The CDC has done an analysis of the data up to April 20th. At that point, 87 million US residents had been fully vaccinated. Among those, only 331 people have needed to be hospitalized due to COVID. That's .00038 percent of the total vaccinated population. There were only 77 deaths due to COVID-19 in this population.

Since the UK started vaccinating people, the covid fatality rate has gone from 1200 per day to 20 per day, and is still falling. Israel is the furthest along the vaccination route, and has reduced it's fatality rate to single figures.

The vaccine works.

[Roy]

Also, is there enough time after the shots to evaluate any effectiveness in the community? We already have seen that deaths by COVID-19 increased in Israel after getting the Pfizer shots.

Here are the fatality figures for Israel. COVID deaths have been decreasing since the vaccine program started.

israel_stats.PNG

Any protection has to be outweighed by the at least 500 deaths per month that have been happening among those who got the covid shots.

The expected number of deaths per month among the of 87 million who have been vaccinated is about 10,000, even without compensating for the vaccine recipients being older than average. Anyone who thinks 500 deaths per month among those vaccinated is an issue is an innumerate idiot.

The COVID shots do not sound like the goto option for a disease which can be treated with Ivermectin protocols, Vitamin D, or various other safe treatments.

Morons like you are getting people killed.

[Teallaura]

Since the UK started vaccinating people, the covid fatality rate has gone from 1200 per day to 20 per day, and is still falling. Israel is the furthest along the vaccination route, and has reduced it's fatality rate to single figures.

The vaccine works.

Really? Dang, with all the free health care y'all rave about I'd have thought that the UK would have provided at least a little treatment to the sick. Not very good at it?

What are the infection rates anyway?

[Teallaura]

CDC confidence in vaccine efficacy:

People Fully Vaccinated Against COVID-19 Don’t Need to Wear Masks Outdoors: CDC


BY ZACHARY STIEBER

April 27, 2021 Updated: April 27, 2021
biggersmaller
Print
People who have been fully vaccinated against the virus that causes COVID-19 are no longer being advised to wear masks outdoors.

People who have gotten two Moderna or Pfizer shots, or the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, can conduct a range of activities outside without wearing a mask, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Tuesday.

Those include dining at outdoor restaurants with friends and attending an outdoor gathering with a mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

People who are not vaccinated against the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) virus are being told to continue wearing masks in those situations.

But even people who have not gotten a shot can walk, run, or bike outdoors and attend small, outdoor gatherings without masks, according to the CDC.

*emphasis mine


Which really doesn't tell us about vaccine efficacy but it is somewhat telling about the CDC.

And it's so stupid that it is funny...

[TheLurch]

Really? Dang, with all the free health care y'all rave about I'd have thought that the UK would have provided at least a little treatment to the sick. Not very good at it?

Where in what he said is there any implication they weren't treating the sick?

This is a lethal disease. It's been lethal in every single country its hit, regardless of their medical system.

[Sparko]

Not really. It really depends on sensitivity - screening tests often aren't as sensitive. Regardless, if it's not extremely sensitive you could have some protection it can't detect. Treat it the same as no protection but unless it totally failed you probably have a little something.

Dude, you're one of the people who actually needs the thing. Talk it over with your doctor, and if he says so, start jumping through those hoops!

The doctors are all too afraid to make a decision right now. There is no guidance on getting an "extra" vaccine. It could cause a serious reaction. I plan to talk to my doctor again, but heck they didn't even know there was an antibody test available. I found it online at Labcorp. It specifically said it could tell if you had either the disease previously or the vaccine.

antibody.jpg

[Roy]

Really? Dang, with all the free health care y'all rave about I'd have thought that the UK would have provided at least a little treatment to the sick. Not very good at it?

Very good at it - we were hampered by government failure to lockdown early enough which led to widespread infection, and a new variant that was more transmissible.

What are the infection rates anyway?

At the moment, 280 new cases and 2 deaths per million people per week.

That's compared with the US's current 1106 new cases and 19 deaths per million people per week.

The biggest problem at the moment is in Hungary (not India), where there are now 910* new cases and 133 deaths per million people per week.



*Yes, that's less than in the US, though I expect the Hungarian cases are undercounted due to limited testing.

[Teallaura]

The doctors are all too afraid to make a decision right now. There is no guidance on getting an "extra" vaccine. It could cause a serious reaction. I plan to talk to my doctor again, but heck they didn't even know there was an antibody test available. I found it online at Labcorp. It specifically said it could tell if you had either the disease previously or the vaccine.

antibody.jpg

I'm not surprised - the CDC has done a crappy job on the non-shiny bits like morphology and testing standards (otherwise known as their #*@! job!). Given the funding thrown at this it's past time for the prelim protocols.

For you as a patient that means staying on it. Find the information that the doctor needs if that's what it takes. Learn and use universal precautions. Talk to your doctor about investing in a real respirator (hardware department) and when you are totally fed up with the whole thing - do it again.

Minus the political nonsense it takes time to not only work out the studies but to sort out all the drivel (like the metric argument in this thread). Doctors are inundated with information that is outside their specialization and they have to make sense of what they are being told and apply it without killing anyone. Add the craziness and it is a wonder they are still semi-sane.

Which stinks for patients having to pick up the slack but that is where we are - for now.

[rogue06]

And like other pandemics just when you think its finally about over it can sweep back through again: Counties with Oregon’s biggest cities moved to extreme risk

[Sparko]

I'm not surprised - the CDC has done a crappy job on the non-shiny bits like morphology and testing standards (otherwise known as their #*@! job!). Given the funding thrown at this it's past time for the prelim protocols.

For you as a patient that means staying on it. Find the information that the doctor needs if that's what it takes. Learn and use universal precautions. Talk to your doctor about investing in a real respirator (hardware department) and when you are totally fed up with the whole thing - do it again.

Minus the political nonsense it takes time to not only work out the studies but to sort out all the drivel (like the metric argument in this thread). Doctors are inundated with information that is outside their specialization and they have to make sense of what they are being told and apply it without killing anyone. Add the craziness and it is a wonder they are still semi-sane.

Which stinks for patients having to pick up the slack but that is where we are - for now.

I routinely know more about my own medical conditions than the people treating me. I have had more than one nurse ask if I was a doctor before

eta: that reminded me of something that royally ticked me off: About a month ago I got a call from someone at Kroger Pharmacy saying that they needed to schedule me for a Shingles vaccine. I asked which doctor of mine set that up, and after some hesitation she admitted none of them, this was basically Kroger pushing the vaccine on people. I got angry and told her that I am not allowed to get live vaccine shots (which the shingles virus is) and that it could cause real damage if I didn't know better and just listened to her "scheduling" me for the shingles vaccine without knowing my medical history or getting approval from my doctors first. I think I scared her pretty good. I hope she reported back to her boss and they stopped doing such nonsense.

[Teallaura]

I routinely know more about my own medical conditions than the people treating me. I have had more than one nurse ask if I was a doctor before

eta: that reminded me of something that royally ticked me off: About a month ago I got a call from someone at Kroger Pharmacy saying that they needed to schedule me for a Shingles vaccine. I asked which doctor of mine set that up, and after some hesitation she admitted none of them, this was basically Kroger pushing the vaccine on people. I got angry and told her that I am not allowed to get live vaccine shots (which the shingles virus is) and that it could cause real damage if I didn't know better and just listened to her "scheduling" me for the shingles vaccine without knowing my medical history or getting approval from my doctors first. I think I scared her pretty good. I hope she reported back to her boss and they stopped doing such nonsense.

That's terrific - commit fraud and medical malpractice in the same sentence.