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The astonishing success of COVID vaccines

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  • The astonishing success of COVID vaccines

    The CDC has done an analysis of the data up to April 20th. At that point, 87 million US residents had been fully vaccinated. Among those, only 331 people have needed to be hospitalized due to COVID. That's .00038 percent of the total vaccinated population. There were only 77 deaths due to COVID-19 in this population.

    This really is a society-wide success. It took years of government funding of basic science for us to understand how to structure an RNA to work well, and to figure out the chemistry needed to insert it into a cell. A couple of startups (one in Germany) pioneered the use of the technology in vaccines, and major pharmaceutical companies have been helping with the manufacturing and distribution. And, after a shaky start, the government's been central to making sure the shots get into the arms of as many people as possible.

    The full measure of success will be getting the vaccines out globally. As long as the virus is circulating in populations, there will be a risk of it evolving into a threatening form that evades vaccines. Having it contained in the US may only be a temporary success when it's still spreading widely in Brazil and India - as well as a vaccine-hesitant population here.
    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

  • #2
    Where is the CDC data being used for their conclusion?

    How does the CDC keep track of who has died or been hospitalized due to COVID-19 after the shots? Mostly we see VAERS data as incomplete in reporting adverse events. VAERS is a voluntary system so it does not track all that has happened.

    Also, is there enough time after the shots to evaluate any effectiveness in the community? We already have seen that deaths by COVID-19 increased in Israel after getting the Pfizer shots. The government in Israel contracted with Pfizer to make the people guinea pigs.

    Any protection has to be outweighed by the at least 500 deaths per month that have been happening among those who got the covid shots. Plus, we are hearing testimony of women having excessive periods after the shots and of having miscarriages. This is for people who are definitely out of the risk group for harm by COVID-19. I do not know why anyone under 60 would even consider the shots as an option.

    The COVID shots do not sound like the goto option for a disease which can be treated with Ivermectin protocols, Vitamin D, or various other safe treatments.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      Where is the CDC data being used for their conclusion?
      Also, is there enough time after the shots to evaluate any effectiveness in the community? We already have seen that deaths by COVID-19 increased in Israel after getting the Pfizer shots. The government in Israel contracted with Pfizer to make the people guinea pigs.
      Let's start with this, because it's completely false. Deaths due to COVID have absolutely plunged. It's recently gone two days with absolutely no deaths whatsoever.

      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      How does the CDC keep track of who has died or been hospitalized due to COVID-19 after the shots? Mostly we see VAERS data as incomplete in reporting adverse events. VAERS is a voluntary system so it does not track all that has happened.
      These are being used under an emergency use authorization, not full FDA approval. As such, outcomes are being tracked very carefully.

      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      Any protection has to be outweighed by the at least 500 deaths per month that have been happening among those who got the covid shots.
      One, that's completely false, given that we've had tens of thousands of people dying per month from COVID, completely dwarfing 500 deaths.

      Second, please provide the data that you make the claim of 500 deaths about.

      Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
      The COVID shots do not sound like the goto option for a disease which can be treated with Ivermectin protocols, Vitamin D, or various other safe treatments.
      None of those treatments work.

      Your post was a sea of falsehoods.
      "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
        Let's start with this, because it's completely false. Deaths due to COVID have absolutely plunged. It's recently gone two days with absolutely no deaths whatsoever.
        Deaths can plunge because the virus is no longer an issue even without getting covid shots. But we have the analysis of covid deaths in Israel that increased among people who got vaccinated. see http://www.nakim.org/israel-forums/v...c.php?t=270812

        A big problem with this also is that people who are under 60 should not even get these shots unless perhaps they have two or more conditions that makes death a greater possibility with any additional sickness.


        Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
        These are being used under an emergency use authorization, not full FDA approval. As such, outcomes are being tracked very carefully.
        How are deaths tracked for people that got the covid shots who are not under medical supervision? How many hospitals and doctor offices know where to report things? What is the system for doing this?

        Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
        Second, please provide the data that you make the claim of 500 deaths about.
        I would rather not die from medicine that is supposed to give me better life.

        You can get the VAERS data from the government site if you want to generate your own reports. It is a bit easier to go through https://vaxpain.us to review the data. This actually shows 750 deaths reported as possible vax-related deaths from the covid shots. There are also severe damage. These are only things that are reported. Many times people could see a death and not know someone got the covid shots. More often, people do not know about VAERS -- I presume you are one of those.


        Originally posted by TheLurch View Post

        None of those treatments work.

        Your post was a sea of falsehoods.
        You have to reject science to come to that conclusion. You can review the scientific studies at https://c19study.com

        This site actually has links to different treatments. There are summaries of the number of studies and doctors involved in these.

        The site adminstrator(s) summarize the studies in many cases but also includes links to the studies. There are also many doctors that give testimonials about the quick recovery of people on these medicines.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          Deaths can plunge because the virus is no longer an issue even without getting covid shots. But we have the analysis of covid deaths in Israel that increased among people who got vaccinated. see http://www.nakim.org/israel-forums/v...c.php?t=270812
          I'm not going to trust some random forum on the internet for my data. We have this data from the US that clearly shows that vaccines are working. We have extensive data from clinical trials that show the vaccine is working. Israel has vaccinated most of its population, and what happened?
          Screen Shot 2021-04-26 at 3.38.13 PM.png
          Covid deaths are approaching zero, despite a relaxation of social limits. The vaccines are doing exactly what the data indicate they should. I'm not sure why you feel the need to deny that reality.

          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          A big problem with this also is that people who are under 60 should not even get these shots unless perhaps they have two or more conditions that makes death a greater possibility with any additional sickness.
          Everyone should get this shot. It is potentially life saving for both you and everyone around you, and prevents the long term consequences of long COVID and evolution of more infectious strains.

          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          How are deaths tracked for people that got the covid shots who are not under medical supervision? How many hospitals and doctor offices know where to report things? What is the system for doing this?
          Details on the CDC reporting are here:
          https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...ugh-cases.html

          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          You can get the VAERS data from the government site if you want to generate your own reports. It is a bit easier to go through https://vaxpain.us to review the data. This actually shows 750 deaths reported as possible vax-related deaths from the covid shots. There are also severe damage. These are only things that are reported. Many times people could see a death and not know someone got the covid shots. More often, people do not know about VAERS -- I presume you are one of those.
          Actually, i apparently know the VAERS data better than you do, because i know there is absolutely no standard of diagnosis or evidence for submitting a report to it. Those are all just possible associations that have not been properly evaluated, unlike the CDC studies that my post was based on.

          Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
          You have to reject science to come to that conclusion. You can review the scientific studies at https://c19study.com
          Please see this:
          https://www.covid19treatmentguidelin...py/ivermectin/

          No evidence whatsoever. Lots of underpowered studies that show everything from reduced symptoms to greater harm.

          You're the one here rejecting multiple clinical trials with tens of thousands of cumulative participants.
          "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by TheLurch View Post

            No evidence whatsoever. Lots of underpowered studies that show everything from reduced symptoms to greater harm.

            You're the one here rejecting multiple clinical trials with tens of thousands of cumulative participants.
            I did not know that 10s of thousands of clinical trials were done on Ivermectin. However, your claim that there is no evidence is fallacious. However, you can make the claim that this evidence is not strong enough for your taste. That is fine for you but is weak in the face of insufficient evidence against Ivermectin. (I do mainly refer to protocols where Ivermectin is a key part of the study -- not Ivermectin alone.)

            As far as the Pfizer covid shot trial, there were 200 people selected out of some 30000 or so people to make the final determination of the relative efficacy. The absolute efficacy was about 1%. So there might be a reduction of the worse symptoms of covid-19 by 1% in the population if everyone takes the covid shots. Also, with the Pfizer study, I'm not sure who, among those who got this experimental technology, would accept Pfizer's subjective determination of covid-19 symptoms

            As to the other issues, I will take a look at some of stuff you posted.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
              As far as the Pfizer covid shot trial, there were 200 people selected out of some 30000 or so people to make the final determination of the relative efficacy. The absolute efficacy was about 1%. So there might be a reduction of the worse symptoms of covid-19 by 1% in the population if everyone takes the covid shots. Also, with the Pfizer study, I'm not sure who, among those who got this experimental technology, would accept Pfizer's subjective determination of covid-19 symptoms
              Again, that's simply false. Where in the world are you getting your information from?

              Here's reality:
              https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577
              "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

              Comment


              • #8
                The 500 deaths (which I think is actually lower than the reports) matter to the families.

                Worldwide the toll is much higher and failure rates are just bizarre.

                I won't be taking the vaccination - it might make sense for the high risk groups but not the general population.

                Also dr's normally fall after a novel disease that humans can develop immunity for stops being novel - that is the wrong metric for a vaccine. The new infection rate is what matters, not the death rate. The death rate is used to gauge lethality and treatment. Infection rate is the gauge of disease spread. The right question is whether the vaccines impact spread.
                "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                  The 500 deaths (which I think is actually lower than the reports) matter to the families..
                  Nobody has provided any evidence of 500 deaths.
                  "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Sorry, hit post too soon.

                    Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                    I won't be taking the vaccination - it might make sense for the high risk groups but not the general population.
                    Medically and epidemiologically, that's simply not true. One, the vaccine limits spread to others (though to a degree we don't fully understand). So, you're essentially deciding that you want to remain a risk to anyone you come in contact with. Two, there are risks from COVID beyond death - tissue damage, loss of smell, general fatigue, all of which can last months beyond infection. This is one i know personally through the experience of two friends, one of whom has had to completely redo his diet because a lot of food/drink started tasting awful, and another that's been too fatigued to resume her former job. Both of those are at least six months out from infection.

                    Finally, as mentioned in the original post, infected individuals provide additional opportunities for the virus to evolve, putting us all at risk.

                    Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
                    Also dr's normally fall after a novel disease that humans can develop immunity for stops being novel - that is the wrong metric for a vaccine. The new infection rate is what matters, not the death rate. The death rate is used to gauge lethality and treatment. Infection rate is the gauge of disease spread. The right question is whether the vaccines impact spread.
                    One, that's not true. The death and hospitalization rates both matter, since those are measures of the potential societal disruption. One of the big fears has been the potential to overwhelm hospital capacity, which has happened in Brazil and is now happening in India; the US came perilously close to it in a number of locations. This creates risks for people who aren't infected but need medical care. So i don't understand why you can say it's not the right question.

                    In any case, we can turn to Israel again:
                    Screen Shot 2021-04-27 at 7.58.05 AM.png
                    Lowest levels since June. The UK, which is also relatively well vaccinated now (though mostly with just single doses), has also seen rates of infection flatline, and has a testing positivity rate of just 0.2%, so it's not limited by testing capacity. The US is just starting to see infections trend down, but its testing capacity has been pretty limited from the start, so i'm less confident in that.
                    "Any sufficiently advanced stupidity is indistinguishable from trolling."

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                      Nobody has provided any evidence of 500 deaths.
                      Last US stats I saw were above 600. Point stands as all vaccines have a death rate associated with them - populations always differ from sampling and some contraindications aren't found until release. Plus there's no such thing as a 100% safe drug.
                      "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                      "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                      My Personal Blog

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by TheLurch View Post
                        Sorry, hit post too soon.


                        Medically and epidemiologically, that's simply not true. One, the vaccine limits spread to others (though to a degree we don't fully understand). So, you're essentially deciding that you want to remain a risk to anyone you come in contact with. Two, there are risks from COVID beyond death - tissue damage, loss of smell, general fatigue, all of which can last months beyond infection. This is one i know personally through the experience of two friends, one of whom has had to completely redo his diet because a lot of food/drink started tasting awful, and another that's been too fatigued to resume her former job. Both of those are at least six months out from infection.

                        Finally, as mentioned in the original post, infected individuals provide additional opportunities for the virus to evolve, putting us all at risk.
                        This is wrong. Vaccines prevent infection - if they work -which does break the chain of spread but it's not the purpose. Effective treatment does the exact same thing and far faster.

                        Viruses usually adapt by becoming less lethal and more transmissible - except HIV which seems to take pleasure in end runs around treatment and was always sucky in transmission. But generally letting them run the course from novel and dangerous to normal and treatable is best for the population - and pretty well unavoidable anyway, especially if vaccination is substituted for herd immunity. Immune response works a dangsite better and faster than any lab or program. Most of the interventions slowed down the natural population immunity responses.

                        Inoculation via exposure also allows the development of immunity.

                        But mostly the prevalence doesn't bear this out. You can't give something you haven't got - so with no guarantee that a given person is going to be infected there's zero justification for the hysteric 'you're endangering us all ' claims.

                        One, that's not true. The death and hospitalization rates both matter, since those are measures of the potential societal disruption. One of the big fears has been the potential to overwhelm hospital capacity, which has happened in Brazil and is now happening in India; the US came perilously close to it in a number of locations. This creates risks for people who aren't infected but need medical care. So i don't understand why you can say it's not the right question.
                        Of course they matter - but not as metrics of spread. As you point out vaccines are being used to prevent spread (although it's an indirect effect of preventing individual infection and a really stupid substitute for effective treatment which breaks the chain of transmission immediately ).

                        Vaccination programs are sloooooow. Presumptive and preventive treatment around the actual infections are fast and solve those problems much more quickly - this is literally what contact tracing is for - and the foundation of successful public health interventions in TB and STD for nearly a hundred years now. Vaccination has an important role but it isn't the first line of defense when it's critical to reduce spread unless there is literally no treatment and that is rarely the case in modern times and it is not the case for C19.


                        In any case, we can turn to Israel again:
                        Screen Shot 2021-04-27 at 7.58.05 AM.png
                        Lowest levels since June. The UK, which is also relatively well vaccinated now (though mostly with just single doses), has also seen rates of infection flatline, and has a testing positivity rate of just 0.2%, so it's not limited by testing capacity. The US is just starting to see infections trend down, but its testing capacity has been pretty limited from the start, so i'm less confident in that.
                        [/QUOTE]Er, let's see the whole cycle because that looks almost identical to the natural cycle - and I expect it is probably lower. That might even relate to the vaccinations - but it would also represent herd immunity and better treatment along with the cyclical spread. This is why STD is easier to differentiate - cycles have external and observable causations where respiratory cycles are observed but causation isn't .
                        Last edited by Teallaura; 04-27-2021, 08:40 AM.
                        "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                        "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                        My Personal Blog

                        My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

                          Plus there's no such thing as a 100% safe drug.
                          That.

                          Nor is every treatment 100% safe. The fact is that life itself is anything but 100% safe.

                          I'm always still in trouble again

                          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by rogue06 View Post
                            That.

                            Nor is every treatment 100% safe. The fact is that life itself is anything but 100% safe.
                            True, but tx is done where we have personnel and / or facilities to handle negative reactions - not at freaking Walmart.
                            "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

                            "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

                            My Personal Blog

                            My Novella blog (Current Novella Begins on 7/25/14)

                            Quill Sword

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                            • #15
                              Teal, the vaccines not only prevent infection, but in the cases where that fails, it prevents death by making the infection much milder and shorter than without vaccination. So the death rate does matter.

                              I agree that the infection rate is going to be the most relevant though. And it seems to be dropping among those vaccinated. Most of the continued infections seem to be from those who were not vaccinated (according to a news report I was listening to today)

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