Omicron, the science only, please

[rogue06]

I know, you can’t help yourself. Stripped of the verboten, you’re suggesting we can’t test for Omicron. You weren’t posting to raise a scientific issue.

I'm not even sure where to begin unraveling that word salad. It's like George W Bush's half completed thoughts said out loud with a dash of Biden's gobbledygook.

Not only do I remember the Wuhan conspiracy theories, I made a point that I’d like them excluded from this thread. First sentence in the o/p. Read it again, please and thank you.

So the possibility that it originated in the Wuhan lab still ranks as a conspiracy theory in your mind.

And with that I'll be letting myself out. Much like for the same reasons I tend to avoid MikeW's covid threads I also avoid those on the flip side of the coin.

[Sparko]

The new variant was discovered ten days ago. I know we've come to expect a lot from science, but there is a limit to how fast it can move.

It was actually first detected in cases from November
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/world...ntl/index.html

The fact that it took longer to isolate and name the variant doesn't change the fact that they knew which cases were the new variant.

Plenty of time to see if those infected were mild cases or not.

[Juvenal]

I'm not even sure where to begin unraveling that word salad. It's like George W Bush's half completed thoughts said out loud with a dash of Biden's gobbledygook.

You said that you weren’t playing politics in a post that referred to the president. Referring to the president at all showed that was a lie. Calling him “old Joe” in the sequel nailed it up on the cross. You said that you were raising a scientific issue by asking whether the president could be tested for Omicron. No one could be that ignorant. So that was a lie, too. And now you claim you didn’t understand why you were called out.

Three for three.

‘Was Rogue lying” is an hypothesis that can be tested, as demonstrated. That’s what a scientific issue looks like.

So the possibility that it originated in the Wuhan lab still ranks as a conspiracy theory in your mind.

It’s an established fact that there were conspiracy theories swirling about its origin in Wuhan. So that’s dishonest, too. More, by definition, censored posts can’t be read, so the claim that social media was censoring content by attaching comments was also dishonest.

You’ve added literally nothing to this thread beyond political jibes and misinformation.

And with that I'll be letting myself out. Much like for the same reasons I tend to avoid MikeW's covid threads I also avoid those on the flip side of the coin.

Oh no, you’re not letting yourself out. I’m kicking you out. Because you can’t muster the minimal character to post honestly.

On the bright side, you’ve got free time to check my posts in the Lab Leak thread. Come back and apologize for misrepresenting me if you can find a backbone.

Or don’t, you sniveling coward.*


*Not looking to give the mods another chance to argue a polite request for an exit for posting off-topic is instead a request for civility. He’s being kicked because he insisted on posting off-topic, even after repeated warnings.

[Juvenal]

It was actually first detected in cases from November
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/world...ntl/index.html

The fact that it took longer to isolate and name the variant doesn't change the fact that they knew which cases were the new variant.

Plenty of time to see if those infected were mild cases or not.

Cribbing from your link, and doing the math.
.

In the past fortnight, South Africa has gone from a weekly average of 290 cases per day to almost 3,800 daily cases. On Wednesday, authorities reported 8,561 new cases nationally. Authorities said three-quarters of sequenced positive tests in Gauteng province were Omicron.

Figuring on a one week reproduction cycle, hence half a fortnite, (3800/290)^1/2 = 3.6 times as transmissible. That would mean it needs to be 1/3.6, 28 percent as lethal to get a net benefit from its replacement of the Delta variant. And that’s conservative. First because the cycle time is greater than a week, and second because only a proportion of the new cases are due to Omicron. Less conservatively, the back of my envelope says we need it to be 1/10 as lethal. I need better numbers to be sure, but that’s probably closer.

I’m also seeing a rapid spike in vaccinations in response to the news of the Omicron variant. Damn, I really wish Bill would get his.

This could still be good. Hoping for the best.

Hang in there, Sparko. I’m thinking good thoughts at you.

[Sparko]

Cribbing from your link, and doing the math.
.

In the past fortnight, South Africa has gone from a weekly average of 290 cases per day to almost 3,800 daily cases. On Wednesday, authorities reported 8,561 new cases nationally. Authorities said three-quarters of sequenced positive tests in Gauteng province were Omicron.

Figuring on a one week reproduction cycle, hence half a fortnite, (3800/290)^1/2 = 3.6 times as transmissible. That would mean it needs to be 1/3.6, 28 percent as lethal to get a net benefit from its replacement of the Delta variant. And that’s conservative. First because the cycle time is greater than a week, and second because only a proportion of the new cases are due to Omicron. Less conservatively, the back of my envelope says we need it to be 1/10 as lethal. I need better numbers to be sure, but that’s probably closer.

I’m also seeing a rapid spike in vaccinations in response to the news of the Omicron variant. Damn, I really wish Bill would get his.

This could still be good. Hoping for the best.

Hang in there, Sparko. I’m thinking good thoughts at you.

Thanks. I am getting worried because I want to go down to my brothers' for Christmas. I am also hoping this is indeed milder and not just an artifact of it infecting people who are already vaccinated and have enough immunity to make it a mild case. My next booster (shot #4) will be coming up in February. Maybe they will add Omicron to the recipe by then? First two shots no antibodies at all. Third (August) gave me some antibodies but I don't know how much is enough. CDC authorized a fourth shot for immune compromised people.

[Stoic]

It was actually first detected in cases from November
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/02/world...ntl/index.html

The fact that it took longer to isolate and name the variant doesn't change the fact that they knew which cases were the new variant.

Plenty of time to see if those infected were mild cases or not.

Even if those cases were mild, that wouldn't tell us if the new variant was significantly less lethal than previous strains. A lot of people infected with previous strains had mild cases.

[Juvenal]

Coronavirus vaccine demand grows in U.S. amid omicron variant concerns, booster eligibility expansion
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Health-care providers administered 2.18 million doses of coronavirus vaccines on Thursday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — the “highest single-day total since May,” the White House said.According to the latest CDC report, over the week ending on Thursday, the average number of daily administered vaccine doses reported to the agency was 22 percent higher than the previous week.‘’

The good news is people are taking the new variant seriously. The bad news is it’s mostly the folks who were already taking covid seriously.

Cyrus Shahpar @cyrusshahpar46
.

Saturday just in:+2.17M doses reported administered over yesterday’s total, including 554K newly vaccinated and 1.25M boosters. Total doses administered increasing as we approach winter and with Omicron spreading. Need to keep this up!

12:46 PM · Dec 4, 2021·Twitter for iPhone

So what I was hearing about increased vaccinations was mostly about increased boosters. Can’t tell from the story how many of the half million daily new vaccinations were hesitaters or just kids being late with their homework.

[Juvenal]

Thanks. I am getting worried because I want to go down to my brothers' for Christmas. I am also hoping this is indeed milder and not just an artifact of it infecting people who are already vaccinated and have enough immunity to make it a mild case. My next booster (shot #4) will be coming up in February. Maybe they will add Omicron to the recipe by then? First two shots no antibodies at all. Third (August) gave me some antibodies but I don't know how much is enough. CDC authorized a fourth shot for immune compromised people.

There’s a timeline on including Omicron in the o/p story that says two weeks to build the replica and another few days to test it for accuracy. Of course, that was leading to testing Omicron for immune escape, but it’s also a step in creating a revised mRNA vaccine.

Ramping up, I dunno, but could be the first Omicron boosters could be ready by February, and you should be first in line. When it’s available for me, I’ll be jumping on it, too.

[NorrinRadd]

So what I was hearing about increased vaccinations was mostly about increased boosters. Can’t tell from the story how many of the half million daily new vaccinations were hesitaters or just kids being late with their homework.

At this point, anyone who hasn't gotten a jab will only do so when literally forced. For some, the certainty of losing employment will be enough. For many others of us, it will take something much more dramatic.

[Sparko]

There’s a timeline on including Omicron in the o/p story that says two weeks to build the replica and another few days to test it for accuracy. Of course, that was leading to testing Omicron for immune escape, but it’s also a step in creating a revised mRNA vaccine.

Ramping up, I dunno, but could be the first Omicron boosters could be ready by February, and you should be first in line. When it’s available for me, I’ll be jumping on it, too.

cool. My superpowers are starting to fade.

[Sparko]

At this point, anyone who hasn't gotten a jab will only do so when literally forced. For some, the certainty of losing employment will be enough. For many others of us, it will take something much more dramatic.

Then they will most likely end up catching COVID at one time or another and that will be their "vaccination"

[Juvenal]

Covid-19 Live Updates

Reporting and results are coming in quickly on Omicron, so here’s a link to WaPo’s live updates.

[Juvenal]

Sparko

Pfizer could have new vaccine targeted at omicron in March, CEO says
.

Pfizer could have a new vaccine targeted at the omicron variant of the coronavirus in March, the company’s CEO said Tuesday, adding that it is not yet clear that it will be necessary.

Speaking at a Wall Street Journal conference of business leaders, CEO Albert Bourla emphasized that scientists are still gathering information on the variant, which experts worry could be more transmissible and more resistant to vaccines. The coronavirus vaccine developed by Pfizer and German biotechnology company BioNTech was the first to get full authorization in the United States.

A new laboratory study in South Africa shows that the omicron variant has significant, but not total, ability to evade virus-fighting antibodies generated by the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The findings have not been peer reviewed. With omicron, researchers found a 41-fold drop in antibodies’ ability to block the virus compared to an early strain.

[NorrinRadd]

Both Drs. Harvey Risch and Marty Makary reported that a recent study suggests omicron actually has an R0 about 1/3 of delta, similar to the original strain. They were on two separate on-air programs, so I didn't catch any identifying details for locating the study.

[Juvenal]

WHO’s Mike Ryan says omicron may be less severe but that more research is needed
.

The World Health Organization’s emergencies director and second-in-command, Mike Ryan, has said the omicron coronavirus variant may be less severe than other variants.

“The preliminary data doesn’t indicate that this is more severe. In fact, if anything, the direction is towards less severity,” Ryan said in an interview with Agence France-Presse on Tuesday. However, he added that more research was needed.

His sentiments were echoed by Anthony S. Fauci, the United States’ top infectious-disease expert. Fauci said Tuesday that emerging evidence suggests omicron may be more transmissible than previous variants but cause less severe illness — although he cautioned that the available data remains preliminary and anecdotal.

So that’s a definite maybe. And as I said before, less lethal times more transmissions could go any direction on death counts, from breakeven to smaller or larger.

But it’s not what struck me in the reporting. Reading on …
.

Ryan also said omicron appeared “highly unlikely” to completely evade current vaccines. He acknowledged, however, that existing vaccines may be less effective against the variant.

“We have highly effective vaccines that have proved effective against all the variants so far, in terms of severe disease and hospitalization. … There’s no reason to expect that it wouldn’t be so" for omicron, he added.

Last week, Ryan said work on an omicron-tailored vaccine was possible, but he reiterated that the focus should still be on the equitable global distribution of vaccines.

This is what struck me:
.

…. reiterated that the focus should still be on the equitable global distribution of vaccines

What’s been troubling my conscience in this case is that when the math came up against my feelings, my feelings won.

The deadlier Delta and more transmissible Omicron variants happened because they could. What made them inevitable was the millions of infections raging around the world, each one another marble on the variant roulette wheel. Eventually, one of them was going to land if we didn’t reduce the marble supply. A more “equitable” distribution of vaccines could have cut those risks.

But they wouldn’t have cut the risks for me, and mine. When the vaccines first became available I’d have cheerfully cut in line to get one, and I was there with my sleeve rolled as fast as I could get an appointment for the booster.