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Prior COVID Infection Is As Effective At Preventing Reinfection As Vaccination

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  • #16
    Originally posted by Juvenal View Post

    If more than half the exposed population in the first case had been vaccinated, and if more than 54 percent of the population in the second case had been vaccinated, and if more than 60 percent of the exposed population in the third case had been vaccinated, then vaccination decreased the risk of hospitalization in all three cases.
    We're talking available bed spaces, not the individual risk of infection. You simply can't blame the surge in full hospitals on the unvaccinated when the raw numbers are basically 50/50. If not a single unvaccinated person went there, the hospital would STILL be 50% full.
    That's what
    - She

    Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
    - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

    I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
    - Stephen R. Donaldson

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post

      We're talking available bed spaces, not the individual risk of infection. You simply can't blame the surge in full hospitals on the unvaccinated when the raw numbers are basically 50/50. If not a single unvaccinated person went there, the hospital would STILL be 50% full.
      But if more people were not vaccinated the beds would have been 100% full and people waiting for beds. The percentage of vaccinated people in hospital is small compared to vaccinated people NOT in hospital. Most of the vaccinated people in Israel who are in the hospital are those who are severely at risk of COVID in the first place, like the elderly and nursing home patients.

      Comment


      • #18
        Originally posted by Sparko View Post

        But if more people were not vaccinated the beds would have been 100% full and people waiting for beds. The percentage of vaccinated people in hospital is small compared to vaccinated people NOT in hospital. Most of the vaccinated people in Israel who are in the hospital are those who are severely at risk of COVID in the first place, like the elderly and nursing home patients.
        That's an awful lot of assumptions there, John. You have no way of knowing that. We don't live in counter-factual worlds where we can see the other "what-if's". Beds weren't over-full last year before the vaccine ever came about, were they?
        That's what
        - She

        Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
        - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

        I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
        - Stephen R. Donaldson

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
          When there are a sufficient number of vaccinated hospital patients, like there are now, you have the same issue. The vaccine isn't eliminating hospitalizations.
          I know they aren't. That's why vaccinating yourself (and thus reducing risk of you being infected and transmitting to multiple others, and them to yet more people, and so on exponentially) is good for you and for others around you, including vaccinated folk (but more so for those who can't be vaccinated or haven't had a good response to vaccination - like some of my rheumatology patients who are on immunosuppressants). However, they do enormously reduce hospitalisations and deaths.

          If you don't need the extra protection that recovery adds to vaccination, then I don't need the extra protection that vaccination provides to recovery.
          Sorry, I can't figure out what you're saying here.

          ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

          Comment


          • #20
            Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post

            Getting the booster is your choice. How would you feel if your business forced you to expose yourself to the virus and then mandated you quarantine for 2 weeks to protect others around you just so you could have the "best" protection? Is that risk worth it to you just for "better" levels of protection (whatever that even means)?
            That would represent an unacceptable risk/benefit ratio and would not be promoted as public health policy.

            Well, taking an unnecessary vaccine isn't worth the risk of the side effects for me. My odds of dying from COVID are miniscule right now. Why should I add additional odds of severe side effects from the vaccine?
            As I've mentioned a few times now, it's only an unnecessary vaccination until it's not. Based on the evidence I've seen, which includes all the statistics presented in this thread, a sober risk/benefit analysis suggest your likely benefits from vaccination far outweigh your risks. If you have evidence to the contrary, I will look at it, but I won't be making any further public responses. At this point, I don't see any benefit in repeating my wish for you to be better protected, and considerable risk that your choice will be conditioned by opposition to my suggestions, so I'm going to sign off on this discussion with the most common sense advice remaining.

            Stop listening to me, and instead bring your concerns and issues to your personal physician.

            Comment


            • #21
              Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
              You have no way of knowing that.
              We do. We have the experience of Wuhan, Lombardy, NYC, London, Cairo and tonnes of other places in the first wave. We also have maths that shows how the numbers would have gone had we not intervened to stop the spread of the virus by locking down.


              Beds weren't over-full last year before the vaccine ever came about, were they?
              Yes, they were. Please remember you're speaking to someone who worked in a hospital where we had to stop EVERYTHING else to accomodate covid patients. We managed our covid quite well, but the cost to the rest of the population to allow us to do this was significant.

              ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by JimboJSR View Post

                I know they aren't.
                Then your objection is dismissed.

                That's why vaccinating yourself (and thus reducing risk of you being infected and transmitting to multiple others, and them to yet more people, and so on exponentially) is good for you and for others around you, including vaccinated folk (but more so for those who can't be vaccinated or haven't had a good response to vaccination - like some of my rheumatology patients who are on immunosuppressants).
                So does being recovered. And at basically the same efficacy.

                However, they do enormously reduce hospitalisations and deaths.
                So does recovering from it, which hundreds of millions worldwide already have.


                Sorry, I can't figure out what you're saying here.
                If you, as a vaccinated person, are considered fine with a 60-72% effective rate of preventing reinfection, then I am also fine with a 70% effective rate against reinfection. I no more need a shot for "extra protection" than you need the illness for extra protection. So if you aren't willing to go the extra mile to get the best protection, why should I? By saying my immunity is insufficient, you are by default saying neither is yours.
                Last edited by Bill the Cat; 10-20-2021, 03:23 PM.
                That's what
                - She

                Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                - Stephen R. Donaldson

                Comment


                • #23
                  Originally posted by Juvenal View Post

                  That would represent an unacceptable risk/benefit ratio and would not be promoted as public health policy.
                  You're quarantined. There is no risk except to you. And you should have the option to accept or decline that unnecessary risk.


                  As I've mentioned a few times now, it's only an unnecessary vaccination until it's not. Based on the evidence I've seen, which includes all the statistics presented in this thread, a sober risk/benefit analysis suggest your likely benefits from vaccination far outweigh your risks.
                  Until it doesn't.

                  If you have evidence to the contrary, I will look at it, but I won't be making any further public responses. At this point, I don't see any benefit in repeating my wish for you to be better protected, and considerable risk that your choice will be conditioned by opposition to my suggestions, so I'm going to sign off on this discussion with the most common sense advice remaining.

                  Stop listening to me, and instead bring your concerns and issues to your personal physician.
                  I did. This morning. He agreed that I do not need the shot. But my pudding for brains employer doesn't care what my physician says, nor what the evidence shows. It's vaccines for all or the bread line.
                  That's what
                  - She

                  Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                  - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                  I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                  - Stephen R. Donaldson

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by JimboJSR View Post
                    We do. We have the experience of Wuhan, Lombardy, NYC, London, Cairo and tonnes of other places in the first wave. We also have maths that shows how the numbers would have gone had we not intervened to stop the spread of the virus by locking down.
                    When NO one had natural immunity or a vaccine. Now, we have a substantial amount of both. And reinfection remains extremely rare.


                    Yes, they were. Please remember you're speaking to someone who worked in a hospital where we had to stop EVERYTHING else to accommodate covid patients. We managed our covid quite well, but the cost to the rest of the population to allow us to do this was significant.
                    My sister is the lead OR nurse in the largest hospital in my city, and their hospital was not full of COVID patients in any wave. Pockets of high infection areas may have temporarily, but overall, there were plenty of spaces available in most hospitals country wide.
                    That's what
                    - She

                    Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                    - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                    I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                    - Stephen R. Donaldson

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                      So does recovering from it, which hundreds of millions worldwide already have.
                      Millions haven't. 140K haven't just in the UK. And many of those who have recovered needed hospitalisation, CPAP, or intubation to do so, and/ or have had longer-term consequences.

                      If you, as a vaccinated person, are considered fine with a 60-72% effective rate of preventing reinfection, then I am also fine with a 70% effective rate against reinfection. I no more need a shot for "extra protection" than you need the illness for extra protection. So if you aren't willing to go the extra mile to get the best protection, why should I?
                      I'm not arguing that previous infection doesn't give good protection against re-infection; I'm saying that vaccination is a safer path to that result, for you and others.

                      When NO one had natural immunity or a vaccine. Now, we have a substantial amount of both. And reinfection remains extremely rare.
                      We're certainly in a better position now, in as much as colossal community infection rates are not being matched by similarly high hospitalisation rates. The vaccines (and for some people, prior infection) are keeping the death rates down. But infect enough people, and even a small % of that becomes a large number. If your area has a huge health service capacity which is easily accessible to all, then that's great. Mine doesn't. We don't need vast numbers of covid patients to screw up our ability to provide care for everyone, which is one reason I feel passionate about this.

                      My sister is the lead OR nurse in the largest hospital in my city, and their hospital was not full of COVID patients in any wave. Pockets of high infection areas may have temporarily, but overall, there were plenty of spaces available in most hospitals country wide.
                      Good for you. Although did it ever occur to you that lockdowns were part of the reason things didn't accelerate to such terrible levels? It certainly explains my experience in Scotland, and that seen in healthcare in many other parts of the world.
                      Last edited by JimboJSR; 10-20-2021, 03:30 PM. Reason: 2 threads combined into one post
                      ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by JimboJSR View Post

                        Millions haven't. 140K haven't just in the UK. And many of those who have recovered needed hospitalisation, CPAP, or intubation to do so, and/ or have had longer-term consequences.
                        But what about the other 99.97% under the age of 65?


                        I'm not arguing that previous infection doesn't give good protection against re-infection; I'm saying that vaccination is a safer path to that result, for you and others.
                        I'm already recovered. My safest path is to do nothing. And that's the topic of the study. Natural immunity is as effective as the shots. For the millions on the other side, our voices SHOULD be heard, but they are being ignored.
                        That's what
                        - She

                        Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                        - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                        I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                        - Stephen R. Donaldson

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post
                          But what about the other 99.97% under the age of 65?
                          They will survive. But many of them will have needed hospitalisation, CPAP, or intubation to do so, and/ or have had longer-term consequences. Or spread it to other people, and contributed generally to the pandemic and causing danger to others.

                          I'm already recovered. My safest path is to do nothing. And that's the topic of the study.
                          That is exactly NOT what the study suggests.

                          Natural immunity is as effective as the shot
                          Agreed. THIS is what the OP study indicates. But that doesn't mean your next step is to do nothing. Indeed, the Israeli data suggests that one dose of Pfizer would be the safest next route for you, and quite possibly for those around you. And whilst infection & vaccination confer similar protection against reinfection, vaccination is a heck of a lot safer (for you and those around you) than infection, for the reasons I've outlined above.
                          ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Originally posted by Bill the Cat View Post

                            That's an awful lot of assumptions there, John. You have no way of knowing that. We don't live in counter-factual worlds where we can see the other "what-if's". Beds weren't over-full last year before the vaccine ever came about, were they?
                            It's common sense. I know that the ones in the hospital are mostly elderly and nursing home patients because when MM brought this up before I looked it up and it was right there in the article he was quoting. And I found the percentages of vaccinated in the hospital too. Don't remember it exactly but it was pretty low, like 10% of breakthrough cases ended up in the hospital, and breakthrough cases were something like 3% or so of all vaccinated. So 10% of 3% of vaccinated people were ending up in the hospital. While a much higher percentage of unvaccinated were ending up in the hospital. And Israel has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world 61%. So if the hospital beds are filling up now with 61% vaccinated, they would be overflowing even more if less people were vaccinated.



                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                              But if more people were not vaccinated the beds would have been 100% full and people waiting for beds. The percentage of vaccinated people in hospital is small compared to vaccinated people NOT in hospital. Most of the vaccinated people in Israel who are in the hospital are those who are severely at risk of COVID in the first place, like the elderly and nursing home patients.
                              This data matches quite clearly what we're seeing in UK hospitals. Whilst many inpatients are vaccinated, that's because (1) we have more vaccinated than unvaccinated, and (2) the vaccinated include the vast majority of our most at-risk patients (elderly, immunosuppressed,etc). So the "vaccinated" cohort are at a big disadvantage from the outset compared to our "vaccinated" cohort. In our younger hospitalised patients, LOADS of them are unvaccinated.
                              ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Originally posted by JimboJSR View Post

                                They will survive. But many of them will have needed hospitalisation, CPAP, or intubation to do so, and/ or have had longer-term consequences. Or spread it to other people, and contributed generally to the pandemic and causing danger to others.
                                And most of them won't. There will be a tipping point where herd immunity is obtained. But the virus is not ever going to be eradicated. Vaxxed and unvaxxed will continue to get the virus until time stops.


                                That is exactly NOT what the study suggests.
                                It's what multiple studies say. Natural immunity is sufficient to ward off reinfection in nearly all cases. And the rare risks from the vaccines aren't worth the extra protection when they haven't even established what "good enough" is yet.


                                Agreed. THIS is what the OP study indicates. But that doesn't mean your next step is to do nothing. Indeed, the Israeli data suggests that one dose of Pfizer would be the safest next route for you, and quite possibly for those around you. And whilst infection & vaccination confer similar protection against reinfection, vaccination is a heck of a lot safer (for you and those around you) than infection, for the reasons I've outlined above.
                                As I said earlier, I am speaking as someone who has recovered, as have my wife and daughters. Our immunity is, and has proven to be, sufficient. I do not believe that anyone should seek out the illness, but I will stand firm on what the studies have repeatedly shown, that the "extra protection" is no more necessary than the vaccinated intentionally getting sick.
                                That's what
                                - She

                                Without a clear-cut definition of sin, morality becomes a mere argument over the best way to train animals
                                - Manya the Holy Szin (The Quintara Marathon)

                                I may not be as old as dirt, but me and dirt are starting to have an awful lot in common
                                - Stephen R. Donaldson

                                Comment

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