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Natural Immunity - Evidently The CDC Needs to be Told This is a Thing

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  • #16
    Originally posted by NorrinRadd View Post

    This part

    The CDC stated in April that there is “no evidence that vaccination contributed to patient deaths” reported by the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.


    is so absolute that I find it impossible to trust. It would be the first vaccination in history that gave "no" such evidence.
    That was crap from the start - no drug, least of all an 'emergency' drug - has that low a risk. We had higher adverse reactions with AZT back when it was released early - and it did amazingly well all things considered.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

      You're aware that they shouldn't be failing at that level, right?
      It seems pretty good to me, given the information available, and without going into extreme detail in the calculations.


      About two more weeks of submissions from 47 states and territories showed 353 deaths among the fully vaccinated, with 1,811 hospitalizations, according to the CDC.


      Over the same two weeks, there would've been at least 7000 deaths among the unvaccinated. Roughly 30 percent of Americans were fully vaccinated at the time, so if the vaccines didn't work at all, you would expect at least 3000 deaths among the fully vaccinated. That suggests that the vaccines were over 85 percent effective, even though a lot of the deaths were due to new variants.

      Of course, more accurate numbers could tweak that a bit, but even 70 percent effectiveness would be nothing to sneer at.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by Teallaura View Post

        Yep - which doesn't help the case. The CDC knew better than make that particular statement - it was way too early and the epidemiology guys at least knew it.
        They would have been derelict in their duty if they didn't correct the misinformation that's out there.

        And seriously, their data collection seems to be crap - what the devil are all the DIS doing? Not the infection control DIS - the vaccination program DIS. This is straight up their alley and it's a reasonably easy crosstrain for nurses (literally every immunology DIS I've ever met was a nurse). They hired a ton of infection control DIS countrywide - how hard is it to have them do the raw collection for the immunology DIS? Not at all - we STD DIS were crosstrained in TB and that's a much harder leap!
        I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Stoic View Post

          They would have been derelict in their duty if they didn't correct the misinformation that's out there.
          They failed pretty miserably.


          I have no idea what you are trying to say here.
          All those people who do contact tracing? The job title is Disease Intervention Specialist. I was one for 18 years. And I'm saying that there's something very wrong with hiring that many DIS and having stat gathering this crappy. Being able to assist outside your trained discipline is part of the job. Training a nurse to do immunology is the quickest - but it doesn't take hardly any training to have existing DIS in other disciplines assist with the epidemiology. That's pretty much learning a new form and some jargon.

          In other words, the CDC's reliance on VAERS is fishy as heck.

          "He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose." - Jim Elliot

          "Forgiveness is the way of love." Gary Chapman

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          • #20
            Originally posted by Teallaura View Post
            They failed pretty miserably.
            So you say. It looks to me like they succeeded, in that case at least.

            All those people who do contact tracing? The job title is Disease Intervention Specialist. I was one for 18 years. And I'm saying that there's something very wrong with hiring that many DIS and having stat gathering this crappy. Being able to assist outside your trained discipline is part of the job. Training a nurse to do immunology is the quickest - but it doesn't take hardly any training to have existing DIS in other disciplines assist with the epidemiology. That's pretty much learning a new form and some jargon.

            In other words, the CDC's reliance on VAERS is fishy as heck.
            I'm not sure what your complaint is with VAERS, or what you think is not being done that should be done.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Juvenal View Post

              I'm fully vaccinated since April 6, and fully intend to pick up my booster when it becomes available.

              So this kind of misinformation, and make no mistake this is deadly misinformation, isn't a threat to me, but it is a threat to the marine's kid, and to Sparko for that matter, and to everyone who hasn't yet been vaccinated or achieved some degree of natural immunity. Transplant recipients are particularly at risk due to their need to maintain themselves on immunosuppressive medications.

              There are fundamental principles being violated here. You don't get legal advice from your mechanic, and even if your mechanic says your engine is sick, you ask for the data. You don't get medical advice from right-wing partisan fringe sites. And if you absolutely must, you make sure there are data supporting the information.

              Where are the data showing half of America has been infected? They don't exist, because it's not true. Existing data show the declines in infections are directly linked to vaccinations which were on the cusp of half of Americans a week ago, and that the unvaccinated remain at high risk.

              'A tale of two societies': As infections plunge among the vaccinated, the unvaccinated remain at high risk
              .
              The declines in Covid-19 cases and deaths are coming as more Americans are getting vaccinated. According to CDC, 49.2% of the U.S. population has received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine, while 39.2% have received all doses required in their vaccination course. Meanwhile, 61.3% of American adults have received at least one shot, while 49.6% have received all required doses. In at least 25 states and Washington, D.C., more than half of their adults have received all required doses.

              Covid-19 cases remain high among the unvaccinated

              But while national Covid-19 case and death rates are painting a favorable picture of the United States' fight against Covid-19, case rates and death rates among the unvaccinated remain high, according to the Washington Post.

              The rate of Covid-19 cases among the unvaccinated is 69% higher than the standard national rates, according to the Post, though it is declining. Meanwhile, the death rate among the unvaccinated is about the same as it was two months ago, and the hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago.

              This is the WaPo interactive cited:

              The unseen covid-19 risk for unvaccinated people
              .
              Washington State:

              2021-05-29_16-05-25.jpg

              Selection pressure favors the variants with higher reproduction numbers. That's the math. And world travel guarantees those variants will arrive here all too soon. Now would be a good time to protect yourselves, and your loved ones, and the immunocompromised members of your communities.
              So if the unvaccinated are catching COVID at a higher rate, isn't the end result the same as if they got the vaccine? If they survive that is. They are basically adding to the herd immunity the hard way.



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              • #22
                Originally posted by Sparko View Post

                So if the unvaccinated are catching COVID at a higher rate, isn't the end result the same as if they got the vaccine? If they survive that is. They are basically adding to the herd immunity the hard way.

                Probably. I'm not sure duration and robustness of immunity post-infection has been quantified, especially among those with very mild illness. I haven't really kept up with the data here, though.
                ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by JimboJSR View Post

                  Probably. I'm not sure duration and robustness of immunity post-infection has been quantified, especially among those with very mild illness. I haven't really kept up with the data here, though.
                  Back in Post #7, I posted a link to an article that addresses some of that. Here is a different article about the same study. If there is a link anywhere to the study itself, I have missed it.
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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by NorrinRadd View Post

                    Back in Post #7, I posted a link to an article that addresses some of that. Here is a different article about the same study. If there is a link anywhere to the study itself, I have missed it.
                    ...because every forum needs a Jimbo

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by JimboJSR View Post

                      Probably. I'm not sure duration and robustness of immunity post-infection has been quantified, especially among those with very mild illness. I haven't really kept up with the data here, though.
                      What I've seen so far is that it's good for at least a year. But there's a question whether immunity is as great from mild or asymptomatic cases. I'm not saying it isn't, just that it's not clear.

                      The real problem is the numbers. The number of people who have had Covid is anywhere between 10 and 30% of the population, depending upon assumptions about the number of unreported cases. Let's pick 20%. But you can't add 20% to 50% (roughly the number vaccinated), because there's overlap: many of those who had it have been vaccinated also. so it's really 20% of the remaining 50% that are probably immune. That takes us up t o 60%. You can make other assumptions about numbers, but I don't think you can get to herd immunity.

                      There's another problem with herd immunity: we're not one herd. Vaccination isn't distributed uniformly. There are familes and communities that have low vaccination rates. The fact that other areas are vaciinnated won't help if anyone in that group gets it. So we should expect to see a diferent pattern than in the past: not uniform high rates, but pockets of high rates.
                      Last edited by hedrick; 06-25-2021, 05:50 PM.

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