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What percentage of Americans need to be vaccinated to make a dent?

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  • What percentage of Americans need to be vaccinated to make a dent?

    The idea of vaccinations providing a silver bullet to ending this pandemic is obviously dependent on a sufficient number of people actually getting the vaccination. Several weeks ago, Dr. Fauci suggested "at least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates" https://www.yahoo.com/now/fauci-says...200118004.html

    One hospital local to me polled its staff. While the number of respondents to the survey was not released, the system has over ten thousand workers. A third said they would take the vaccine, a third said they would not, and a third was undecided: https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/wak...covid-vaccine/ This result surprises me and I expect skeptics to make much hay of it - the optics of even medical professionals not trusting the vaccine are significant.

    Another recent survey suggested that only 42% of black Americans would be willing to take it. This is certainly understandable in light of community distrust stemming from the Tuskegee syphilis experiments. (The same survey put the overall mark at 60% for all Americans regardless of race). https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ng-to-get-vacc

    I suspect the actual rates will be higher as people come around when their employees require vaccination cards in order to walk into the building (as well as for kids to attend schools), but we shall see. Religious exemptions would be a major flashpoint there.
    "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

  • #2
    What's the prevalence ? Only a moderate prevalence will be impacted . A high prevalence is already creating herd immunity . Low prevalence can't justify the vaccine .

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    • #3
      FYI I consider general debate over whether the vaccine should exist to be off topic for this thread.
      "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

      Comment


      • #4
        Dr. Oskoui believes Fauci's idea is absurd, that the vaccine has the potential to be extremely dangerous, and that we won't know about its safety for 5-7 years.

        Video here.
        Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

        Beige Nationalist.

        "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

        Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
          The idea of vaccinations providing a silver bullet to ending this pandemic is obviously dependent on a sufficient number of people actually getting the vaccination. Several weeks ago, Dr. Fauci suggested "at least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates" https://www.yahoo.com/now/fauci-says...200118004.html

          One hospital local to me polled its staff. While the number of respondents to the survey was not released, the system has over ten thousand workers. A third said they would take the vaccine, a third said they would not, and a third was undecided: https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/wak...covid-vaccine/ This result surprises me and I expect skeptics to make much hay of it - the optics of even medical professionals not trusting the vaccine are significant.

          Another recent survey suggested that only 42% of black Americans would be willing to take it. This is certainly understandable in light of community distrust stemming from the Tuskegee syphilis experiments. (The same survey put the overall mark at 60% for all Americans regardless of race). https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ng-to-get-vacc

          I suspect the actual rates will be higher as people come around when their employees require vaccination cards in order to walk into the building (as well as for kids to attend schools), but we shall see. Religious exemptions would be a major flashpoint there.
          That the vaccines were by necessity rushed has caused a lot of people to take a wait and see attitude wanting to make sure that the cure isn't worse than the disease. Look at Thalidomide for instance.

          I'm always still in trouble again

          "You're by far the worst poster on TWeb" and "TWeb's biggest liar" --starlight (the guy who says Stalin was a right-winger)
          "Of course, human life begins at fertilization thatís not the argument." --Tassman

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          • #6
            Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
            The idea of vaccinations providing a silver bullet to ending this pandemic is obviously dependent on a sufficient number of people actually getting the vaccination. Several weeks ago, Dr. Fauci suggested "at least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates" https://www.yahoo.com/now/fauci-says...200118004.html

            One hospital local to me polled its staff. While the number of respondents to the survey was not released, the system has over ten thousand workers. A third said they would take the vaccine, a third said they would not, and a third was undecided: https://www.wral.com/coronavirus/wak...covid-vaccine/ This result surprises me and I expect skeptics to make much hay of it - the optics of even medical professionals not trusting the vaccine are significant.

            Another recent survey suggested that only 42% of black Americans would be willing to take it. This is certainly understandable in light of community distrust stemming from the Tuskegee syphilis experiments. (The same survey put the overall mark at 60% for all Americans regardless of race). https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ng-to-get-vacc

            I suspect the actual rates will be higher as people come around when their employees require vaccination cards in order to walk into the building (as well as for kids to attend schools), but we shall see. Religious exemptions would be a major flashpoint there.
            I don't think there is a sharp cutoff, where some percentage is great and anything less than that is useless.

            The more people we have who are brave enough to take it, the sooner we'll have a working economy, effective healthcare for everyone, and the chance to do away with masks and social distancing.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
              The idea of vaccinations providing a silver bullet to ending this pandemic is obviously dependent on a sufficient number of people actually getting the vaccination. Several weeks ago, Dr. Fauci suggested "at least 80 to 85 percent" of people would need to be vaccinated to meaningfully reduce infection rates" https://www.yahoo.com/now/fauci-says...200118004.html
              That 80 to 85 percent depends solely on the reproduction number and the effectiveness of the vaccine. If one case, on average, creates 2.5 more cases, 1.5 cases would have to be prevented for "break even," when the number of infections is neither rising nor falling. 1.5 out of 2.5 is 60 percent, the boundary for "herd immunity."

              To reduce the infection rates solely by immunization, 60 percent of the population would have to become immune. If a vaccine's effectiveness is 95 percent, that translates to an immunization rate of 60/.95 or 63 percent. If a vaccine is only 70 percent effective, 60/.7 or 85 percent.

              In fact, we've shown repeatedly that it's possible to reduce the infection rate by changing our behavior using social distancing strategies and wearing masks.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Stoic View Post

                I don't think there is a sharp cutoff, where some percentage is great and anything less than that is useless.

                The more people we have who are brave enough to take it, the sooner we'll have a working economy, effective healthcare for everyone, and the chance to do away with masks and social distancing.
                I'm not sure I believe this. I have seen a number of headlines where public health experts have been floating the ideas of wearing masks (and social distancing) indefinitely, even after the pandemic. I'm assuming it's just going to be an indefinite mandate. I am thinking mainly in terms of at least getting the death rate under control.
                "I expect that wearing a mask will become part of my daily life, moving forward, even after a vaccine is deployed," Amy Hobbs, a research associate at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, told The Times.

                Marilyn Tseng, an assistant professor at California Polytechnic State University, said life would never revert to the way it was, though the preventative measures currently practiced—masks and social distancing—will feel "normal" in time. Similarly, Vasily Vlassov, a professor at HSE University in Moscow, said life was perfectly normal now because this is the new normal.
                (https://reason.com/2020/12/04/epidem...ew-york-times/)
                Last edited by KingsGambit; 12-09-2020, 11:36 PM.
                "I am not angered that the Moral Majority boys campaign against abortion. I am angry when the same men who say, "Save OUR children" bellow "Build more and bigger bombers." That's right! Blast the children in other nations into eternity, or limbless misery as they lay crippled from "OUR" bombers! This does not jell." - Leonard Ravenhill

                Comment


                • #9
                  Since there has not even been an *attempt* to determine whether the vaxes prevent transmission, what would even constitute a "dent"?
                  Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                  Beige Nationalist.

                  "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                  Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by KingsGambit View Post
                    I'm not sure I believe this. I have seen a number of headlines where public health experts have been floating the ideas of wearing masks (and social distancing) indefinitely, even after the pandemic. I'm assuming it's just going to be an indefinite mandate. I am thinking mainly in terms of at least getting the death rate under control.
                    The death rate will eventually be under control, even if only because the most vulnerable people have all been vaccinated or died.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by NorrinRadd View Post
                      Since there has not even been an *attempt* to determine whether the vaxes prevent transmission, what would even constitute a "dent"?
                      I don't see why the vaccines would be any less able to prevent transmission than would having recovered from the disease. If neither of those things prevents transmission, then before long we'll get to the point where everyone has it, and not many people are getting seriously ill or dying from it anymore. That might not be the ideal outcome, but it would be livable.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        "Early COVID-19 Vaccines May Prevent Symptoms but Not the Infection, Dr. Fauci Says."
                        Geislerminian Antinomian Kenotic Charispneumaticostal Gender Mutualist-Egalitarian.

                        Beige Nationalist.

                        "Everybody is somebody's heretic."

                        Social Justice is usually the opposite of actual justice.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Stoic View Post

                          I don't see why the vaccines would be any less able to prevent transmission than would having recovered from the disease. If neither of those things prevents transmission, then before long we'll get to the point where everyone has it, and not many people are getting seriously ill or dying from it anymore. That might not be the ideal outcome, but it would be livable.
                          Why give a vaccine to 15000 people for a sickness that is treatable and hits maybe 10 of those people?
                          The side effects are going to hit more people pretty hard for a vaccine that has a small chance of being useful to them. I don't get the logic here. People are still in this hysteric mode and are unable to reason things soundly.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
                            Why give a vaccine to 15000 people for a sickness that is treatable and hits maybe 10 of those people?
                            Without the vaccine, 70 or 80 percent of those people will eventually be infected, and probably close to 1 percent of them will die.

                            The side effects are going to hit more people pretty hard for a vaccine that has a small chance of being useful to them. I don't get the logic here.
                            You don't get the logic because you are reasoning from misinformation.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Stoic View Post
                              Without the vaccine, 70 or 80 percent of those people will eventually be infected, and probably close to 1 percent of them will die.


                              You don't get the logic because you are reasoning from misinformation.
                              Those darn scientists ... the source of all misinformation. Trust Fauci. Trust Gates. They only have big profits to gain but no reason to distort the truth.

                              Their motto is "let us make a lot of people sick in order to avoid some deaths that are not as likely to happen anymore." The numbers don't work, Mr. Stoic.

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