Announcement

Collapse

Health Science 101 Guidelines

Greetings! Welcome to Health Science.

Here's where we talk about the latest fad diets, the advantages of vegetarianism, the joy of exercise and good health. Like everywhere else at Tweb our decorum rules apply.

This is a place to exchange ideas and network with other health conscience folks, this isn't a forum for heated debate.
See more
See less

Covid-19 no longer deadly

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Stoic
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I am in the "the math must make sense" camp. We see a magic jump in deaths that waited until the quarantine started.
    What you mean is that the number of deaths didn't get big until after the quarantine started. That's not unexpected.

    People would have been infected with this months before.
    The people who died would have been infected about 3 weeks before, on average.

    The climb should have been obvious. Instead there is a sudden jump.
    An exponential curve can look like a sudden jump or a slow climb, depending on how you label the axes.

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by Stoic View Post

    So you are in the "correlation implies causation" camp.
    I am in the "the math must make sense" camp. We see a magic jump in deaths that waited until the quarantine started. People would have been infected with this months before. The climb should have been obvious. Instead there is a sudden jump.

    Leave a comment:


  • Stoic
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post

    Common sense. The deaths did not ramp up until quarantines were announced. It is an unnatural curve that primarily reflected a sudden change. Why would it be triggered by quarantines?
    So you are in the "correlation implies causation" camp.

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by Stoic View Post

    I'll rephrase it.

    Why do you think "the contagion would have been spreading out months before the quarantine and would have had an increase of deaths at a more gradual but noticeable level April"?
    Common sense. The deaths did not ramp up until quarantines were announced. It is an unnatural curve that primarily reflected a sudden change. Why would it be triggered by quarantines?

    Leave a comment:


  • Stoic
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    I have no idea what your point is.
    I'll rephrase it.

    Why do you think "the contagion would have been spreading out months before the quarantine and would have had an increase of deaths at a more gradual but noticeable level April"?

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by Stoic View Post

    Strange that you don't say why you think that.
    I have no idea what your point is.

    Leave a comment:


  • Stoic
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    your model still fails. The contagion would have been spreading out months before the quarantine and would have had an increase of deaths at a more gradual but noticeable level April
    Strange that you don't say why you think that.

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by Stoic View Post
    I guess you've forgotten that New York has much higher population density, along with greater reliance on mass transit, and buildings with lots of occupants sharing the same air supply.


    What you are describing is called "foresight". It takes a few weeks on average between when someone is diagnosed with covid-19 and when they die. The shutdowns were based on the number of cases skyrocketing, because they knew the number of deaths would follow suit a few weeks later. So yes, the shutdowns occurred before the number of deaths went up very far. This is a good thing. It saved a lot of lives.
    your model still fails. The contagion would have been spreading out months before the quarantine and would have had an increase of deaths at a more gradual but noticeable level April

    Leave a comment:


  • Stoic
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post

    That does not explain anything. The curve I provided shows no growth of the curve until quarantines were done. The virus did not know to become a big thing until New York got a big jump in the end of March. How come is suddenly increased there but did not do so in other of the states like that (maybe exception of New Jersey)? California has many international travelers too.
    I guess you've forgotten that New York has much higher population density, along with greater reliance on mass transit, and buildings with lots of occupants sharing the same air supply.

    Plus, the high deaths per week should have started earlier in March -- the extra numbers of deaths should have been apparent with the red line or just a marked rise in the blue line --before deaths were ascribed to coronavirus. Maybe you can explain this in a more convincing fashion than you have.
    What you are describing is called "foresight". It takes a few weeks on average between when someone is diagnosed with covid-19 and when they die. The shutdowns were based on the number of cases skyrocketing, because they knew the number of deaths would follow suit a few weeks later. So yes, the shutdowns occurred before the number of deaths went up very far. This is a good thing. It saved a lot of lives.

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post

    Amazingly accurate self-reflection.
    oh. wow. I did not think I was pushing useless masks by non-positive asymptomatic people like you are doing.

    Leave a comment:


  • shunyadragon
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post

    You are relentless in your push of the pseudo-science propaganda. This is well appreciated by your leaders.
    Amazingly accurate self-reflection. You motives in all your anti-science threads is abundantly apparent.

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by shunyadragon View Post
    As usual you are pandemic denier, and anti-science. The scientific research has fully demonstrated the effectiveness of of masks and social distancing. Your anti-science agenda goes beyond just the pandemic.

    Your thread tittle, 'no longer deadly' is a sad tragic incorrect statement and not funny.
    You are relentless in your push of the pseudo-science propaganda. This is well appreciated by your leaders.

    Leave a comment:


  • shunyadragon
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post

    Sure. Deaths are not funny. That is why we have to go back to normal society and stop the economic decay. I think you just want millions of people to starve -- that you think that is a happier way to die.

    I just want you to get the full picture instead of propagating ineffective quarantines and masks. When you start making sense, then I will honor that.

    You still get to explain why deaths did not happen until quarantines started in the states.
    As usual you are pandemic denier, and anti-science. The scientific research has fully demonstrated the effectiveness of of masks and social distancing. Your anti-science agenda goes beyond just the pandemic.

    Your thread tittle, 'no longer deadly' is a sad tragic incorrect statement and not funny.

    Leave a comment:


  • mikewhitney
    replied
    Originally posted by Stoic View Post

    Deaths were increasing before the stay-at-home orders were given. There were 175 deaths in the US by the time California ordered the first stay-at-home order on March 19, over four times as many as there had been a week earlier. And those are only the deaths we know about. Given how little testing was being done at the time, there were probably a lot more.
    That does not explain anything. The curve I provided shows no growth of the curve until quarantines were done. The virus did not know to become a big thing until New York got a big jump in the end of March. How come is suddenly increased there but did not do so in other of the states like that (maybe exception of New Jersey)? California has many international travelers too. Plus, the high deaths per week should have started earlier in March -- the extra numbers of deaths should have been apparent with the red line or just a marked rise in the blue line --before deaths were ascribed to coronavirus. Maybe you can explain this in a more convincing fashion than you have.

    Leave a comment:


  • Stoic
    replied
    Originally posted by mikewhitney View Post
    One thing in the OP that I have been especially curious about is that the deaths did not increase until after the coronavirus quarantines began. Is this a psychosomatic trigger? It could be hysteria that kicked in which resulted in people's fear with the consequential weakening of the immune system.
    Deaths were increasing before the stay-at-home orders were given. There were 175 deaths in the US by the time California ordered the first stay-at-home order on March 19, over four times as many as there had been a week earlier. And those are only the deaths we know about. Given how little testing was being done at the time, there were probably a lot more.

    Leave a comment:

widgetinstance 221 (Related Threads) skipped due to lack of content & hide_module_if_empty option.
Working...
X