Hurricane Laura

[Cow Poke]

I'm hearing that Laura is now Cat 2. I don't think I've thought about this...is it normal to see a storm downgraded so quickly?

It is not normal. Some friends of mine in the "Cajun Navy" in Louisiana are amazed at the storm damage compared to the hype. Doesn't look near as damaging as had been predicted.



("Cajun Navy" is a bunch of guys and gals who own boats and planes and air boats, and do voluntary search and rescue during and immediately after a hurricane or natural disaster)

[DesertBerean]

I'm hearing that Laura is now Cat 2. I don't think I've thought about this...is it normal to see a storm downgraded so quickly?

[Christianbookworm]

Uh oh!!! High tide + storm surge = In Big Trouble!

[Juvenal]

11 hours out now, it looks like landfall is going to coincide with high tide, says here.

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
500 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Low tide occurred along the northwestern Gulf coast within the past
hour, and water levels are expected to rise quickly through the
evening and overnight due to storm surge and the tide.

Hourly updates began at 2pm Central, and will continue through landfall and beyond.

Folks shouldn't mistake the tracking cone for the hurricane itself. That's just an estimate of where the center will be. The surge is already hitting, and the leading edge is already inland.

Watch here.

[Christianbookworm]

I hope no one acts like the guy in the joke that dies in a flood due to refusing to evacuate.

[Cow Poke]

At least there's an inland to get too. What if someone doesn't have a car?

There have been buses available, and there are plenty of local operations to round up people who don't have transportation.

One of the problems is capacity on buses due to Covid factors.

[Christianbookworm]

At least there's an inland to get too. What if someone doesn't have a car?

[DesertBerean]

My stepdaughter's godparents are in the area.

Please tell me they are NOT now in the area....😧😧😧😧

[One Bad Pig]

NHC Twitter

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline. #Laura

Emphasis on "Unsurvivable."

Surge map:

[ATTACH=CONFIG]47969[/ATTACH]

My stepdaughter's godparents are in the area.

[Christianbookworm]

Meaning if they don't leave that area, they will be drowned by the storm surge? They better get out of there!

[Juvenal]

This is a pack-up-and-git forecast.

NHC Twitter

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline. #Laura

Emphasis on "Unsurvivable."

Surge map:

surge.jpg

[Juvenal]

Skies are already dark and "swirly", and the rain has begun --- just a sprinkle for now, but Jake is quite unsettled.

To be honest, nobody down here worries about tropical storms. Just bring in the lawn furniture and make sure the generator's on spec. Cat 1 is barely interesting if you're more than 10 miles from landfall. Rule of thumb is 10 miles per Cat level and you'll be all right once the power's back and the flooding has gone down. Cat 3 scares me, lost a car from falling trees to the last one.

And then there's this.

Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low. Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast.

This is a pack-up-and-git forecast.

If I had friends out there, and space within reach and more than 50 miles inland from landfall, I'd be offering them shelter about now.

[Cow Poke]

The Weather Channel lies.

It's a scandal, and something people should know. They deliberately exaggerate weather threats, often enough in direct contradiction to official forecasts from national services that aren't paid-by-the-click. Their duty is to their advertisers, not their audience. It's easy to spot the difference.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]47968[/ATTACH]

Those of us with a personal interest in reliable storm warnings get our information directly from the National Hurricane Center, just up the road from me in Miami. People should know that, too.

Somebody posted - maybe on Facebook - a weather person in Austin adamantly refusing to be involved in the scare-mongering, and saying "we're keeping a close eye on it, and will report the facts, but not the hype" (or words to that effect).

[Juvenal]

The Weather Channel lies.

It's a scandal, and something people should know. They deliberately exaggerate weather threats, often enough in direct contradiction to official forecasts from national services that aren't paid-by-the-click. Their duty is to their advertisers, not their audience. It's easy to spot the difference.

warning.jpg

Those of us with a personal interest in reliable storm warnings get our information directly from the National Hurricane Center, just up the road from me in Miami. People should know that, too.

[Cow Poke]

Skies are already dark and "swirly", and the rain has begun --- just a sprinkle for now, but Jake is quite unsettled.